Google Gets it Right in PA

Up to now, we've been somewhat disappointed with Google's election maps. But their latest offering for Pennsylvania does a great job of merging election results with demographics via maps, charts, and even a spreadsheet.

The Google Lat Long Blog has the details. We hope the Google Elections Team goes back and produces this sort of county-level analysis for all states.

Our guess is that similar precinct-level maps and charts may be on the way from Google. But this is unlikely to happen on a nationwide scale until the 2012 election. By then, most states will have produced precinct-level datasets depicting the 2008 election as part of the 2010 census redistricting and reapportionment cycle.

In the meantime, we've produced precinct-level Google Earth maps for eight states showing the 2004 election.

More Bush-Gore

Bush-Gore precinct maps in Google Earth KMZ format are now available via the Google Earth forum for two additional late primary states -- Indiana (May 6) and West Virginia (May 13).

Click graphic for larger image.

With Kentucky (May 20) sandwiched in between, it would have been nice to include the Bluegrass State as well. But, alas, there are very few counties where the election data from 2000 matches the 2000 census precinct geography.

The Google Earth files are organized into folders sorted by county,allowing for faster display and easier export to Google Maps. See this map of Kanawah County, WV (Charleston).

As in the Kanawah County Google Map, you may wish to make the colors a little more transparent for Google Maps. You can do this by doing a search and replace on the statewide KML file -- search for b0 and change to 7f.

West Virginia election data could not be matched to precinct boundaries in Cabell County and a few other areas. Indiana is more spotty -- precincts reflecting approximately 80% of the votes cast in the 2000 election are displayed.

There is a lot more demographic and election data available for West Virginia via FairVote2020's West Virginia interactive map. Also, at the end of the web page, you'll find Bush-Gore and 2000 Election Day turnout maps in Adobe format for 60 cities and towns.

This is the first time we have produced a map for Indiana, so you'll have to rely on the SocioEcon Mapper for additional info on Indiana neighborhoods.

Bush-Gore by 2000 Precinct in Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania primary is just a month away. There is probably a statewide GIS database showing Bush-Kerry by precinct, but the gatekeepers at the political party headquarters will never make it available to the public.

Fortunately, Pennsylvania is a state where a Bush-Gore map is just about as useful. So we have uploaded a precinct-level Google Earth map showing 2000 presidential election results in a head-to-head Bush-Gore contest.

You can download the KMZ file from the Google Earth forum, where we have uploaded several Google Earth precinct-level maps from other states showing the 2004 election.

The KML file is organized by county to make it easy to export precincts into Google Maps. Lehigh County (Allentown) is shown below.


View Larger Map

The FairVote2020 Pennsylvania interactive map was probably the most heavily used map on our website prior to the 2004 election. You can query that map for a lot more demographic and voting data than you get with the Google Earth map.

If you need detailed paper maps, you can download Adobe maps for 55 places at the end of the PA interactive map web page.

Felon Disenfranchisement by State

An estimated five million people nationwide are ineligible to vote because of a felony conviction, according to The Sentencing Project. Of these, three-fourths (3.5 million) are no longer incarcerated.

Felon Disenfranchisement Rates by State in 2004

The map below shows the percentage of the voting age population by state that was ineligible to vote in 2004 due to felony convictions.


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The convicted felon population includes incarcerated felons, as well as probationers, parolees and those who have completed their sentences. But felon disenfranchisement varies widely across states depending on state law. Maine and Vermont allow all felons (including those incarcerated) to vote. Kentucky and Virginia have the most restrictive laws, allowing ex-felons the right to vote only when granted by the state after a special appeal.

The Sentencing Project estimates that nationwide there are about two million disenfranchised African American felons, of whom nearly one million are ex-felons who have completed their sentences.

If you sort on the % African American Disenfranchised 2004 column in the interactive table below, you will see extremely high percentages in many states. Ten states had African American disenfranchisement rates above 15% in 2004. Rates for several of these states (for example, Wyoming) are likely skewed due to correctional facilities with out-of-state inmates who return to their home states after release from prison. But there are others in this group with sizable resident African American populations where skewing is not an issue -- i.e., Virginia, Florida, Delaware, and Alabama.



View Expanded Interactive Table


Current State Policy

Five states --Florida, Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, and Rhode Island -- have implemented major policy changes since 2004. The interactive chart below breaks out states according to their general policy of voting rights for felons.



View Interactive Chart

You can review details on policy changes (major and minor) that have occurred since 2004 via annual updates prepared by The Sentencing Project.

A Decade of Reform: Felony Disenfranchisement Policy in the United States (October 2006)

2006 Annual Update

2007 Annual Update

Sources and Additional Information

The charts and maps displayed above are based on data and an interactive map prepared by the The Sentencing Project. Policy changes that have occurred since December 2004 are not reflected in the numbers.

The Sentencing Project data is not completely consistent with data we used to calculate voter registration rates in previous posts. Those maps and charts rely on survey estimates from the Census Bureau's 2004 Current Population Survey, which excludes persons in correctional facilities and halfway houses from the population base. Non-incarcerated disenfranchised felons are included in the CPS, which means that the voter eligible unregistered population is overestimated by the CPS in states where voting rights are not restored to felons upon release from prison.

In addition to the felon disenfranchisement material from The Sentencing Project, information on this important issue is available on web pages developed by the ACLU (2008 toolkit), the Advancement Project, the Brennan Center, MALDEF, NAACP, and the Prison Policy Institute.

African American Voter Registration Rates by State

In a previous chart, we noted that there are over 7 million Latino citizens who are not registered to vote. Nationally, African-American citizens have a much higher voter registration rate than Latino citizens -- 69% to 58%. But at 7.5 million, the unregistered African American population is just as numerous.

The chart below shows that younger African Americans are less likely to be registered to vote than their parents. About 1.7 million college-age African Americans (43%) are not registered.




The map below shows state-by-state voter registration rates (as a percentage of black voting age population) reported by African Americans for the 2004 presidential election. Registration rates range from a low of 49.7% in New York to a high of 87.6% in Missouri.

Click a state on the map to see detailed stats.

African American Voter Registration Rates by State
(percent of the AA voting age population)


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Due to statistical sampling issues, rates for several states with relatively small numbers of African Americans were not calculated by the Census Bureau. These states are shown in white on the map.

After discounting for the higher non-citizen African American population in states such as New York and Florida, there is less interstate variation. Massachusetts has the lowest African-American citizen registered voter rate -- 54.2%.

View Map of African American Registration Rates by State
(percent of citizen voting age population)

Latino Voter Registration Rates by State

You can review similar state-by-state maps depicting Latino voter registration rates via the links below.

View Map of Latino Voter Registration Rates by State

(percent of voting age population)

Just one state on the Latino registration by voting age map -- New Mexico -- has a rate above 50%.

Once non-citizens are removed from the voting age base, Latino voter registration rates improve markedly -- from a low of 33.3% in Tennessee to a high of 76% in Ohio.

View Map of Latino Voter Registration Rates by State
(percent of citizen voting age population)

Non-Hispanic White Voter Registration Rates by State

With over 37 million voting age persons who are not registered to vote, the non-Hispanic white population is still the big enchilada. Voter registration rates are slightly higher across-the-board for whites vis-a-vis African Americans.

Tennessee (64.1%) has the lowest white registered voter rate as a percentage of the white voting age population, while North Dakota is highest (89%).

View Map of Non-Hispanic White Registration Rates by State
(percent of voting age population)

Sources and Additional Information

These maps and charts are based on a spreadsheet (see table 4a) from the Census Bureau website -- Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004. A detailed narrative report released in 2006 can be downloaded here.

This Census Bureau report provides state-level voter registration and citizenship rates for the voting age population by race and age group. The data is compiled from self-reported survey responses to the November 2004 Current Population Survey. Unfortunately, the report does not provide registration data for Native Americans even though they comprise a significant portion of the electorate in several states.

Non-incarcerated disenfranchised felons are included in the CPS, which means that the voter eligible unregistered population is overestimated by the CPS in states where voting rights are not restored to felons upon release from prison. See our next post for details on felon disenfranchisement.

See also web-based state profile voter reports comparing the 2000, 2004, and 2006 elections from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

Do you need more specific registration detail for local GOTV efforts? Most of the interactive maps we produced leading up to the 2004 election have voter registration data mapped thematically. Four GOTV map sets -- Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina -- show the unregistered African American population by precinct and include hundreds of printer-ready Adobe maps for canvassing.

GOTV Demographics and Google Earth

Thanks to gCensus, loading demographic information into Google Earth is a relatively simple process. You can produce a Google Earth KML file to visualize demographic and socioeconomic data from the 2000 U.S. Census -- in some cases down to the census block level.

Let's say you want to pinpoint areas in Green Bay, WI for a door-to-door Latino voter registration drive. According to the 2000 census, there were over 7,000 Latinos in Green Bay. (The Census Bureau estimates that the Latino population has grown to 10,000 in 2007).

We know from the block-group level Wisconsin interactive GOTV map that neighborhoods east of the river have significant concentrations of Latinos. Click here to use the interactive map zoomed to the focus area shown in the graphic below. Areas shaded orange are 20% to 40% Latino.

The FairVote2020 interactive map shows detail only to the block group level (encompassing several city blocks), so the block-level detail available from gCensus can help focus the voter registration effort.

Below is a Google Earth graphic showing more detailed block-level data -- highlighting all census blocks in Green Bay with more than 31 persons who are Latino. These blocks are shaded tan to orange with white boundaries. The map dataset was created from Summary File 1 using the gCensus web form found here.

Click here to download the Green Bay Latino KMZ block file -- edited from the original gCensus KML file. The gCensus dataset expresses block population counts as a range, rather than a discrete count. As part of the editing process, we eliminated all but the top three ranges.

In a future post, we will examine an obvious issue -- citizenship status. According to the 2006 American Community Survey, just one-third of the 6,700 Latinos of voting age in Green Bay are citizens.

Note that in order to overlay census blocks on top of the Brown County Bush-Kerry precinct map as in the map above, we changed the altitude settings of the block file to begin displaying at 8 meters.

Because we are focusing on just a couple dozen census blocks, the KMZ file imports into Google Maps with ease.

View Larger Map

For starters, these blocks are the best areas to begin door-knocking in search of new Latino voters.

From Google Earth to My Maps

For neighborhood-level GOTV work, the complete Brown County map displayed in the previous entry is unnecessarily large. But if you have installed Google Earth, you can work with bite-size chunks.

Click on "View Larger Map" in the Brown County Bush-Kerry map, then click on "View in Google Earth".

Start Google Earth and open the Brown_WI.kmz file. Next zoom in to the area of the county where you want to focus your efforts. In the Google Earth graphic below, the view is zoomed to part of Green Bay.



Add a folder under My Places called Green Bay. Next use Ctrl-Left Click on the Brown_WI.kmz map to identify the voting districts of interest. Use Ctrl-Right Click to copy and paste each ward to the Green Bay folder. (You can also copy and paste from the sidebar, without using the map.) Finally, go to the sidebar and copy the legend folder in Brown_WI.kmz to the Green Bay folder.

Save the Green Bay folder as a .kmz file. Go to Google My Maps and select "Create New Map". Next select "Import" and upload the .kmz file from your computer. Your map should look something like this:



View Larger Map


And you are now ready to overlay your own data -- for example, geocoded placemarks showing newly registered voters.

Brown County, WI (Bush-Kerry)

View Larger Map

Will Google Maps become a serious neighborhood-level tool for campaigns and voter registration drives in 2008?

It seems easy enough. Just save a base map to Google My Maps, then create an overlay or two with your own data. With Google's new collaboration tool, you can share and edit GOTV maps with coworkers, friends, and volunteers. You can make it public or keep it private.

The map above shows precinct-level results for the 2004 presidential contest in Brown County, Wisconsin. The county has 170 election districts or wards. With so many election districts, the Brown County map tests the limits of Internet Explorer, but displays quickly using Firefox.

To save the Brown County Bush-Kerry map to Google My Maps, click on "View Larger Map".

Illustrative Non-metropolitan Latino-majority Election Districts

We have examined the potential for Latino-majority election districts in about 120 local jurisdictions and developed draft voting plans in 80 of them.

These are hypothetical plans developed for Latino communities in nonmetro or exurban areas which have experienced dramatic demographic change in the past decade

The voting plans are restricted to areas with populations greater than 2,000 that are at least 20% Latino according to the 2000 census -- and exclude places in Florida, California, and the Southwest.

Most plans are for municipalities or school districts. In many instances, we have incomplete information on annexations, incumbents, and election history. All plans comply with one-person, one-vote requirements.

The illustrative election plans are displayed on Google Maps. To access the plans, select a state from the list below.

• Arkansas
• Colorado
• Georgia
• Idaho
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• New York
• North Carolina
• Oklahoma
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Washington

Click on a link from the directory and the Google Map will open with a collapsible sidebar showing population stats for one or more potential majority-Latino districts. You can also click the balloon markers on the Google Map to see district population stats. Click the KML link above the map to view with Google Earth.

The plans are based on census-block level data from the 2000 census. The Census Bureau will release updated census block population counts in 2011 upon completion of the 2010 census.

Information on citizenship status is not available at the census block level. Estimated voting age Latino citizenship percentages by district are available upon request.

You can review neighborhood level (block group) citizenship status (and other 2000 census variables) on FairData's SocioEcon Mapper.

If you need a specific plan -- even for areas outside the initial target states -- just contact us and we'll move it to the top of the list.

District-based election plans are not the only way to enhance Latino participation and representation. See the Center for Voting and Democracy for information on alternative election systems.

Between 2001 and 2006, over 175 election plans (multiple drafts) in 20 states were developed by the FairPlan project -- primarily at the request of African-American and Native American groups involved in local level redistricting. We testified in federal court or were deposed in about 15 redistricting lawsuits during this time period and provided technical assistance in a dozen others.

Technical Note: Boundaries are not precise due to minor discrepancies between Google streets and Census Bureau block geography. Accurate geographic files are available offline.

The plans were prepared with Maptitude for Redistricting and converted to Google Earth using Marcelo Luna's excellent Area2GE add-in for Maptitude.

Thematic Google Maps

We can overlay any thematic voter registration/GOTV map onto Google Maps. For small areas, maps can be displayed directly like this illustrative voting plan for Otero County, Colorado.



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For large areas, voting maps can be tiled like this block group-level regional median income map.

Georgia Photo ID Google Map mashup

Click here for the Georgia Photo ID Google map mashup.

You can calculate the distance from any address to a Georgia Driver Services office. Click on a balloon marker, enter the address, and a Google map will pop up with the time/distance calculated.

When you click through to the FairData census map, you see the distribution of households without vehicles for the area defined in the Google map.

The point, of course, is to show that many people without cars in rural towns and the inner city would have a long way to travel to get a photo ID.

Details on the Voter ID law (under challenge and enjoined by a federal court) are found here. Be sure to check out the rest of this special ACLU website on the Voting Rights Act.

Google Map Interface

Interactive maps for most states now have a Google base map interface option. This could be of some utility for close-up zooms if you are looking for a feature such as a college, park, or military base that is not displayed on the FairData map. You can also use the base map to get directions to any point identified by the balloon marker. Upon request, this option can be activated in any FairVote2020 interactive map.

Click here for the Google map interface to FairData's SocioEcon mapper.